31 January 2016

In 2016 a deficit of tin is expected

In December 2015, representatives of ITRI predicted a shortage of tin on the market in 2016. At the end of 2015, it was expected to reach 6,000 tons. In 2016, the shortage will increase to 10,000 tons. It is assumed that the production of tin can not meet demand. Over the past decade, for 8 years, there was a shortage of metal. At the same time, ITRI examined the consumption level of 148 companies. The decrease in tin consumption began in the second half of 2014. Further, there was an acceleration of the trend, especially in the PRC. However, if demand in 2015 declined by 3.2%, output fell by about 8%. Thus, there is a market deficit.

By the results of 2015, the export of Indonesian tin decreased to 70154 tons. Decrease in indicators relative to 2014 reached 7.6%. The fall is observed for 3 years, given the decrease in demand among consumers. In 2012, the volume of exports was 101,000 tons. The decrease for the three-year period amounted to a total of 30%.

Indonesia began to take measures to reduce the supply from 2013. At the same time, the market continues to lose its sphere of influence. The present level of exported tin reached a lower limit since 2003, 64,000 tons. However, the fall is not as significant as in 2014. According to the December data provided by ITRI, export volumes of tin amounted to 5804 tons. This indicator relative to the same period of 2014 is lower by 43.7%. However, in comparison with the November results, the level is 2.2 times higher. In November 2015, exports of tin reached 2636 tons.

The PRC expects to reduce tin production in 2016 by 17,000 tons. Such an agreement was reached in the Association of Nonferrous Metals Producers of China. Producers of China, using such measures, reduce the excess supply of tin on the country's market. At the same time, the drop in incomes will also be suspended. Considering the signed agreement, there will be a significant reduction in melting capacities. The negotiated volume of 17,000 tons is equal to the volume of tin produced in China per month. To date, China is the largest consumer of metal.

Previously, the government of Indonesia almost completely blocked the export of tin . It was done to keep the stability of world prices. From January to May 2015, the global tin market observed a deficit of metal. It was 12,000 tons. It is assumed that in 2016-2017 there will be an increase in the production of tin . This trend is possible against the background of the launch of new projects.

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